How MacroRadar Works

What is MacroRadar?

MacroRadar is a macro regime intelligence platform that monitors the US economic environment and explains how changes may affect your portfolio. It uses proprietary machine learning models to classify the economy across multiple independent dimensions — growth, market conditions, inflation, and financial stress — and detects when regimes are shifting.

Data Source

All economic data comes from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. We monitor 25+ economic indicators with full vintage history, ensuring point-in-time reproducibility — models only see data that was available at the time, never future values.

How the Models Work

MacroRadar's proprietary models combine multiple machine learning techniques to detect economic regime structure across dimensions. Each dimension is classified independently, then a fusion layer identifies agreement or divergence across the economy. Key principles:

• Walk-forward validation on decades of historical data — no look-ahead bias
• Probability-calibrated outputs — a 30% reading means roughly 30% of similar conditions historically led to that outcome
• Retrained daily with the latest economic releases
• Multi-dimensional: no single indicator drives the classification

Regime Portfolios

Model portfolios are constructed for each detected regime based on historical asset-class performance in similar environments. The dynamic portfolio blends allocations based on current regime probabilities. All portfolios are backtested with transaction costs from 2000 to the present.

What MacroRadar Is Not

MacroRadar is a monitoring and research platform. It does not provide personalized investment advice, trade recommendations, or portfolio management. It shows how economic conditions have historically affected different asset allocations — the decision to act is always yours.

Disclaimer

MacroRadar provides historical macro regime analysis and educational content. It is not personalized investment advice. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Model outputs reflect statistical relationships that may not hold in the future. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.