The US economy is reading late cycle.
late cycle at 59% confidence, with expansion the next most likely state at 34%. Contraction is at 0%.
Recession probability · next six months
0.8%
Today’s reading. The line below is the walk-forward history — 1991–2026, every point refit on observations up to its own date.
Growth
late cycle
59% confidence
Market
neutral
73% confidence
Inflation
stable
83% confidence
Financial
neutral
95% confidence
Four dimensions of the economy, classified independently and then fused. Every historical value is generated walk-forward: the model is refit at each step on observations up to that date. Input series are as later revised — vintage-level revisions are not reconstructed. Get the data →
Circled on the chart: December 2007 and March 2020 — the two recessions that fall inside the published history, and therefore the only two honest tests of it. Hover or tap either point for the reading.
Track record
Two US recessions have happened inside the published history, so there are two honest tests of it — a model that has never been wrong has never been tested.
2020 — the pandemic
Elevated a full quarter before the pandemic was a market event, from labour and credit data alone — then normalised quickly rather than staying alarmed.
2008 — the financial crisis
Six months out the model was near zero; three months out it had barely moved. The jump came only in the last reading before the recession began — too late to act on, and whether it even scores as a hit turns on a one-month dating convention. It did not see the financial crisis coming, and that stays on this page.
2026— where we are
For comparison, the regime model put contraction at 99% at the 2009 trough and 43% in 2020. Today it is 0% — which is information, not reassurance.
Why you can check this
Public inputs only
Every input is primary economic data from FRED, NBER, and other public institutions — no opaque feeds. Each source is documented.
Walk-forward, always
Historical values are generated by refitting at each step on observations up to that date. Input series are as later revised — vintage-level revisions are not reconstructed.
Open outputs
The model outputs are a public JSON API and downloadable CSV — recompute any number on this page yourself.
Most-read indicators
For developers
Every number on this page, as JSON
Free public API — regime probabilities, recession probability with full walk-forward history, sentiment, and the underlying indicator series as CSV. No key required.
API docs →$ curl www.macroradar.io/api/v1/recession
{"data": {"date": "2026-08-01",
"prob_6m": 0.0085}, ...}Get the weekly macro brief
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