Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
0.13
Percentage Points
Min
-0.37
Max
9.50
Average
0.42
10Y Percentile
61%
3M Change
-56.7%
3-Month
-56.7%
6-Month
-43.5%
12-Month
-51.9%
What this means
The SAHM Rule at 0.13 percentage points, falling sharply, signals a weak recession signal, meaning recession risk is low and trending lower. At the 61st percentile it remains above the median but still modest.
When the indicator stays low, equities have generally held steady while safe‑haven assets see less demand. Historically such readings have coincided with modest bond price gains and limited flight‑to‑quality.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sahm Rule?
The Sahm Rule, created by economist Claudia Sahm, signals the start of a recession when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises 0.50 percentage points or more above its low from the previous 12 months.
How accurate is the Sahm Rule?
The Sahm Rule has identified every US recession since 1970 with no false positives. It is designed to trigger early in a recession — typically within a few months of the start — making it one of the most reliable real-time recession indicators available.
Is the Sahm Rule triggered right now?
Check the current reading at the top of this page. A reading above 0.50 indicates the rule has triggered. The closer to zero, the further the labor market is from recession territory.