Where MacroRadar's numbers come from

A macro model is only as trustworthy as the data underneath it. MacroRadar uses a single rule: every input must come from a primary, authoritative source that anyone can check. If you have the same public data, you can reproduce every classification MacroRadar publishes.

We publish our own derived outputs — regime classifications, the recession-probability score, the sentiment index, composite indices, and the daily brief — and we link back to the original series rather than re-hosting raw third-party data. The distinction matters, and it is set out in full below.

MacroRadar redistributes its own work, not other people's. What we publish are derived and composite outputs — regime labels, the recession-probability score, the sentiment index, composite indices, and written interpretation — all computed by MacroRadar from the public inputs above.

We do not re-host raw third-party series as a substitute for the source. Where we display an underlying indicator, it is to provide context for our analysis, and the source is named and linked so you can pull the authoritative copy yourself. Indicator metadata — name, description, cadence, source link — is published freely; the canonical values live with the institution that produces them.

If you cite MacroRadar, cite the derived output and link the page. If you need the raw economic series, go to the originating institution in the table above — that is both the correct attribution and the freshest copy.

The pipeline refreshes daily, pulling the latest releases from each source. Because economic data is revised long after first publication, MacroRadar stores every observation with its vintage date — the date that value was first reported — so historical classifications only ever see the data that was actually available at the time.

That point-in-time discipline is documented in full on the methodology page.

The input universe is deliberately compact. A broad indicator set is easy to assemble but hard to interpret; we favor a small set of well-understood series that produces stable, explainable classifications across the full historical sample.

All inputs are US economic data — the models describe the US economy, and broader geographic coverage is on the roadmap rather than in production today. The honest scope of the models, and what they cannot do, is set out on the limitations page.