Asset class regime views · US
How asset classes have historically performed over the following 12 months, conditional on the macro regime.
This is the three-state cycle classification (expansion / caution / contraction) these historical base rates are bucketed by. For the full multi-dimensional read — growth, inflation, and financial conditions scored independently — see the macro regime dashboard.
| Asset class | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BitcoinBTC-USD | +164.5% | +65.4% | 69% | 301.4% | 70 |
| US Growth StocksVIGRX | +14.4% | +15.2% | 89% | 15.7% | 195 |
| US EquitiesSPY | +13.0% | +12.9% | 86% | 12.7% | 226 |
| US Technology SectorXLK | +13.0% | +13.2% | 83% | 16.9% | 133 |
| US Utilities SectorXLU | +12.4% | +12.0% | 89% | 10.5% | 133 |
| US Value StocksVIVAX | +11.9% | +12.4% | 86% | 11.0% | 195 |
| US Health Care SectorXLV | +10.5% | +9.2% | 82% | 10.7% | 133 |
| US Industrials SectorXLI | +9.0% | +8.4% | 78% | 11.5% | 133 |
| US Energy SectorXLE | +8.9% | +3.8% | 60% | 27.0% | 133 |
| US Consumer Discretionary SectorXLY | +8.8% | +10.6% | 78% | 13.6% | 133 |
| US REITsVGSIX | +8.7% | +8.4% | 73% | 15.0% | 160 |
| US Consumer Staples SectorXLP | +8.6% | +8.5% | 88% | 7.4% | 133 |
| Long-Term US TreasurysTLT | +8.3% | +8.5% | 77% | 12.9% | 226 |
| US Small-Cap EquitiesNAESX | +8.1% | +9.3% | 70% | 14.9% | 226 |
| US Financials SectorXLF | +7.6% | +7.1% | 65% | 14.1% | 133 |
| US Investment-Grade CreditLQD | +5.9% | +6.3% | 80% | 7.9% | 226 |
| US High-Yield CreditVWEHX | +5.8% | +5.7% | 86% | 5.9% | 226 |
| Emerging Market EquitiesEEM | +5.6% | +3.3% | 54% | 19.8% | 123 |
| US Materials SectorXLB | +5.5% | +5.9% | 64% | 13.4% | 133 |
| GoldGLD | +5.0% | +1.7% | 57% | 15.6% | 111 |
| Developed ex-US EquitiesEFA | +4.6% | +1.4% | 54% | 13.2% | 123 |
| US T-Bills / CashTB3MS | +4.0% | +4.4% | 100% | 2.7% | 355 |
| Broad CommoditiesDBC | -4.3% | -6.0% | 35% | 19.5% | 102 |
How asset class regime returns are computed
For every month-end going back decades, we label the macro regime using the same deterministic scoring model that drives the rest of MacroRadar — then measure each asset class's total return over the following 12 months. Grouping those forward returns by regime gives the historical base rates shown above: mean, median, hit rate (share of windows that were positive), and the dispersion of outcomes.
These are base rates, not forecasts. They describe what has happened historically when the economy was in a given regime — they do not predict what will happen next. Small samples (low N) mean wide uncertainty; regimes like contraction are rare, so treat thin rows with caution. Volatility is measured from overlapping windows, so read it as a dispersion indicator rather than an annualized figure.