The expansion holds and equities sit at record highs, but a $90 oil print keeps inflation the one regime dimension worth watching.

Growth remains in expansion (88% at 3 months in the models). Consumer confidence slipped to 93.1 and new-home sales eased to 622k, but the broader picture is still one of resilient spending and heavy AI-related business investment rather than a turn.

The market regime reads risk-on, with U.S. equities up roughly 19% since the late-March low and pushing new highs. Notably, the AI rally has broadened from the hyperscalers funding the buildout to the suppliers enabling it — semiconductors, hardware, power and metals — which historically looks more like a maturing advance than a narrowing one.

Inflation is the dimension carrying the tension. WTI near $89, against roughly $57 at year-end, keeps an energy premium in the system; reports of U.S.-Iran de-escalation are the swing factor that could unwind it. Cross-dimensional agreement sits at 74% — solid, but the gap is mostly this inflation-vs-growth pull.

Rates have eased with the 10-year back to 4.45% from 4.56%, and the models put recession probability at just 6% over six months. In past regimes that looked like this one, the expansion persisted — 71% probability of still being in expansion a year out.