Recession & Risk Indicators
Labor market, growth, sentiment, volatility, and credit-stress gauges.
Recession indicators track the real economy and the market's appetite for risk. Labor-market gauges — unemployment, jobless claims, and the Sahm rule — tend to turn early, while GDP, industrial production, and retail sales confirm the trend.
Risk and credit measures complete the picture: the VIX captures equity volatility, high-yield and investment-grade spreads show stress in corporate credit, and the dollar reflects global demand for safety.