← Asset class regime views
US T-Bills / Cash
TB3MS · 3-month Treasury bill secondary-market rate (FRED TB3MS), compounded into a cash total-return index. Effective from 1960 (regime-history start).
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +4.0% | +4.4% | 100% | 2.7% | 355 |
| Caution | +4.9% | +4.8% | 100% | 3.3% | 400 |
| Contraction | +4.4% | +0.2% | 100% | 5.7% | 29 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1960-01-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (1934-01-01), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.