← Asset class regime views
Broad Commodities
DBC · Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | -4.3% | -6.0% | 35% | 19.5% | 102 |
| Caution | +8.1% | +3.9% | 63% | 24.7% | 115 |
| Contraction | +28.2% | +23.0% | 81% | 29.6% | 16 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 2006-02-28.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (2006-02-06), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.