← Asset class regime views
Emerging Market Equities
EEM · iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +5.6% | +3.3% | 54% | 19.8% | 123 |
| Caution | +11.6% | +13.7% | 76% | 23.9% | 128 |
| Contraction | +45.2% | +48.4% | 100% | 25.5% | 16 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 2003-04-30.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (2003-04-14), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.