← Asset class regime views
US Growth Stocks
VIGRX · Vanguard Growth Index NAV (dividend-reinvested), the long-history US large-cap growth total-return proxy back to 1992. Still live, so no ETF splice needed.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +14.4% | +15.2% | 89% | 15.7% | 195 |
| Caution | +10.4% | +16.1% | 76% | 21.9% | 181 |
| Contraction | +33.8% | +36.3% | 94% | 14.4% | 17 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1992-10-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (1992-10-01), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.