← Asset class regime views
US Investment-Grade Credit
LQD · iShares iBoxx IG Corporate Bond ETF. FRED ICE BofA TR (BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV) reaches 1988 and is preferred in the full build.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +5.9% | +6.3% | 80% | 7.9% | 226 |
| Caution | +6.8% | +6.5% | 85% | 7.0% | 231 |
| Contraction | +11.4% | +10.1% | 100% | 9.5% | 17 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1986-01-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (2002-07-26), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.