← Asset class regime views
Long-Term US Treasurys
TLT · iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. FRED-constructed TR back to 1962 is a post-MVP splice (see ingestion plan §2).
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +8.3% | +8.5% | 77% | 12.9% | 226 |
| Caution | +5.4% | +5.8% | 73% | 9.9% | 231 |
| Contraction | -6.1% | -6.9% | 24% | 8.5% | 17 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1986-01-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (2002-07-26), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.