← Asset class regime views
US REITs
VGSIX · Vanguard Real Estate Index NAV (dividend-reinvested), the long-history US REIT total-return proxy back to 1996. Still live, so no ETF splice needed.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +8.7% | +8.4% | 73% | 15.0% | 160 |
| Caution | +9.2% | +11.2% | 73% | 21.0% | 173 |
| Contraction | +41.9% | +35.3% | 94% | 31.6% | 17 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1996-05-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (1996-05-13), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.