← Asset class regime views
US Financials Sector
XLF · Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund — S&P 500 financials sector total return.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +7.6% | +7.1% | 65% | 14.1% | 133 |
| Caution | +5.5% | +9.4% | 63% | 24.4% | 169 |
| Contraction | +45.8% | +56.2% | 88% | 31.7% | 17 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1998-12-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (1998-12-22), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.