← Asset class regime views
US Technology Sector
XLK · Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund — S&P 500 technology sector total return.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +13.0% | +13.2% | 83% | 16.9% | 133 |
| Caution | +9.4% | +14.4% | 71% | 29.3% | 169 |
| Contraction | +40.3% | +42.6% | 100% | 13.1% | 17 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1998-12-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (1998-12-22), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.