← Asset class regime views
US Small-Cap Equities
NAESX · Vanguard Small-Cap Index NAV (dividend-reinvested), the long-history US small-cap total-return proxy back to 1985. Still live, so no ETF splice needed.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +8.1% | +9.3% | 70% | 14.9% | 226 |
| Caution | +9.9% | +12.7% | 73% | 20.9% | 231 |
| Contraction | +45.1% | +46.6% | 94% | 20.1% | 17 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1986-01-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (1985-01-01), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.