← Asset class regime views
US Equities
SPY · SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust — large-cap US equity total return.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +13.0% | +12.9% | 86% | 12.7% | 226 |
| Caution | +9.8% | +14.4% | 77% | 17.6% | 231 |
| Contraction | +31.8% | +32.7% | 94% | 14.9% | 17 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1986-01-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (1993-01-29), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.